Best Time to Fly TPA to MDW: On-Time Stats by Hour & Airline
Tampa International → Chicago Midway International
Data through July 2026 · Last updated October 18, 2026
1,569 flights were scheduled from Tampa (TPA) to Chicago (MDW) in the last 12 months, and 75.4% of those that flew arrived on time, 2.2 points below the US average of 77.6%.
Among 2 airlines, Frontier Airlines led with 86.0% on time and Southwest Airlines was last with 75.1%.
Over 24 months, Tuesday was the most reliable day (81% on time) and June the worst month (72%).
The cancellation rate was 2.1% (US average 1.8%).
TPA to MDW on-time performance by airline
Last 12 months. Airlines with fewer than 30 completed flights are marked “limited data”.
| Airline | On time | Avg delay when late | Cancelled | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Airlines | 86.0% | 128 min | 2.3% | 44 |
| Southwest Airlines | 75.1% | 55 min | 2.1% | 1,525 |
80%+ good 70–79.9% fair <70% poor
Best time of day to fly TPA to MDW
On-time arrival % by scheduled departure hour (local time), 3,321 flights over 24 months.
Show the numbers
| Departure hour | On time | Cancelled | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5am–6am | 91.4% | 1.4% | 71 |
| 6am–7am | 92.2% | 2.7% | 292 |
| 7am–8am | 90.7% | 1.5% | 341 |
| 8am–9am | 86.0% | 2.9% | 140 |
| 9am–10am | 86.1% | 1.2% | 167 |
| 10am–11am | 86.9% | 1.0% | 296 |
| 11am–12pm | 78.7% | 0.5% | 194 |
| 12pm–1pm | 79.2% | 2.5% | 79 |
| 1pm–2pm | 87.1% | 0.7% | 142 |
| 2pm–3pm | 80.6% | 2.3% | 133 |
| 3pm–4pm | 75.0% | 0.7% | 141 |
| 4pm–5pm | 72.6% | 3.1% | 287 |
| 5pm–6pm | 67.5% | 1.2% | 171 |
| 6pm–7pm | 59.7% | 3.4% | 237 |
| 7pm–8pm | 70.6% | 2.8% | 182 |
| 8pm–9pm | 63.5% | 1.9% | 209 |
| 9pm–10pm | 65.8% | 0.6% | 165 |
| 10pm–11pm | 61.4% | 5.4% | 74 |
Best day of the week
24 months, by day of departure.
Best month to fly
24 months, by calendar month.
Holiday travel on TPA to MDW
On-time arrivals during holiday periods compared with all other days, last 24 months.
| Period | On time | vs other days | Cancelled | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving week (Tue before to Mon after) | 89.4% | +9.5 pts | 5.6% | 71 |
| Christmas & New Year (Dec 20 - Jan 3) | 71.2% | -8.6 pts | 0.0% | 161 |
| Summer peak (Jun 15 - Aug 15) | 72.0% | -7.8 pts | 1.2% | 577 |
| All other days | 79.9% | — | 2.1% | 2,512 |
Monthly on-time trend
On-time arrival % each month, with the 12-month US average for reference.
What causes delays on this route
Share of reported delay minutes, last 12 months (BTS cause categories).